Resolves NO if there is infidelity, an open marriage, polyamory, a divorce, or separate living arrangements.
Resolves YES if one of them dies before any incidence of the above
Resolves NO if one of them kills the other
If they upload their minds to new bodies, that counts as death for the purpose of this question. If they create clones, I may also count that as death. Same with neuralink or really comprehensive prostheses (new head, etc).
EDIT 20240228: Resolves NO if one kills the other on purpose. Resolves YES if one kills the other by accident.
1,000
3.00I’ll use my best judgement, but the existence of a few rumors probably won’t qualify. Needs to be widely accepted or backed up by evidence
Betting, but can you clarify just in case: would an accidental killing (e.g. Zuck trips while demonstrating his new katana and accidentally stabs her) resolve to YES? That's in the spirit of the question but technically as described this would be a NO. If there's ambiguity on this we could run a separate market or poll re accidental death versus make-it-look-like-an-accident.
@ByrneHobart Thank you for the clarification. An accident as described would resolve to YES.
Of course, if it is ambiguous, I will resolve based on prevailing opinion some time after the incident.
The prior on divorce is somewhere under 50%. Should be adjusted lower for high IQ and long history of stable marriage with children and neither having been divorced before, probably somewhat higher for being a weird rich guy. A bit higher for the poly option. I still think it should wind up below 50% (so this question should be above it).
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00