If Trump is imprisoned before 2030, will he serve house arrest but NOT prison time?
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2030
70%
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Resolves N/A if Trump never goes to prison or is under house arrest post-conviction.

Resolves NO if Trump serves prison time post-conviction.

Resolves YES if Trump serves house arrest post-conviciton but NOT prison time.

This is meant to tease apart the differences between markets like the following:
https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned

https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-trump-spend-any-time-in-prison

https://manifold.markets/cy/will-donald-trump-serve-any-prison

https://manifold.markets/DhruvRaghavan/will-donald-trump-serve-time-in-pri

#️ Politics
#🇺🇸 US Politics
#Trump
#Republican Party
#Trump indictment(s)
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Note that Trump has a Secret Service detail that would either have to go to prison with him or be removed by an act of Congress.

Lorxus MathfoxboughtṀ10YES

@Lorxus I made some edits, let me know if any issue.

@aashiq Not as far as I know. I'm surprised there's no markets about this yet.

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