Following consultation with traders, I've decided to resolve YES based on the 23 July protest in Kiev.

As previously noted, the attendance estimate provided by the local police was "more than 9,000". I have interpreted this as a lower bound, which neither supports nor precludes a YES resolution.

Data journalist Yevheniia Drozdova mapped out the area filled with protesters and calculated that, at a density of 1.3 protesters per square metre, the total number would be ~10,885. Looking at photos and videos of the event, I believe it's likely that the crowd occupying that area was indeed packed in at that density or even more tightly. The ~10,000 figure is also supported by the New York Times.

Dear @traders

In accordance with the resolution principles, I have decided to consult you with regard to a resolution that may be contentious:

An anti-corruption protest with at least 10,000 attendees will take place in a Ukrainian city in July 2025

Of the various protests held across Ukraine in July, I'm aware of only one that might have reached this threshold – the 23 July protest in Kiev. I'm satisfied that this was an anti-corruption protest, but whether it had 10,000 attendees is debatable. Below is some relevant reporting for your consideration:

RBC-Ukraine (on the 22 July – not 23 July – protest)

Up to 5,000 people could have been present on the first evening of protests near the Franko Theater in Kyiv [...] a source in law enforcement said that the square itself holds about 2,500 people, but throughout the evening people came and went, and in total during the entire protest there could have been about 5,000 people.

Radio Liberty (on 23 July)

Today, several thousand people gathered in the capital - at least twice as many as yesterday. The square in front of the Franko Theater is completely filled with protesters. People have also partially occupied the streets adjacent to the square.

Suspilne

In Kyiv on 23 July, more than 9,000 people took to the streets in a protest against the law restricting the powers of NABU and SAP. This was reported to Suspilne by the capital's police.

Ukrainska Pravda

In Kyiv, more than 9,000 people took to the streets for a peaceful protest against the bill No. 12414 signed by the president, which limits the powers of NABU and SAP.

New York Times

The public outcry quickly escalated into spontaneous demonstrations, with one rally in Kyiv, the capital, drawing an estimated 10,000 people.

Kyiv Post

The majority of protesters – even on the most crowded protest day, Wednesday, when about 10,000 people gathered – are young people, especially women.

Data journalist Yevheniia Drozdova

Approximately drew an area that was clogged by people on July 23. The crowd is considered quite dense if we have 2 people per square meter. Given that Franko Square is not solid asphalt where you can occupy every meter, and there are some trees, monuments, bushes, journalists with cameras, the distribution of people will be irregular.

At the density of 1.3 people per square meter, we have ~ 10 thousand of the protesters.

As stated in the resolution principles, there is a presumption against resolving YES until it is "established" that the event in question has occurred.

So, with all of that in mind, please feel welcome to let me know if (and why) you think I should:

a) resolve YES

b) resolve NO

c) resolve to a percentage

d) void it ('N/A')

e) wait for more information

I will allow at least 24 hours for your input before I take any action

@a_l_e_x There won't be a clear cut answer. N/A or 50%.

@a_l_e_x The data journalist probably made the most serious effort & if NYT agrees, that meets the criteria for YES by almost any standard.

@WilliamGunn thanks, I think you make a compelling case.

I agree that Drozdova makes the most serious effort. My only concern is it's not clear how she arrived at the 1.3 per m² figure – and if it was actually, say, 1.15 then the total would be under 10k – but looking at photos, 1.3 seems plausible at least

The real number is probably quite close to the 10k threshold and there is enough uncertainty that it could easily be on either side, so I can also see the case for resolving 50-50. But on the other hand, we were never going to get a precise number and I don't want to set the bar too high for a YES resolution. In light of that, NYT going with 10k, even as a rough estimate, is very persuasive

https://kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=reports&id=1542&page=1 - 65% -> 58% trust.

@MaxA it's unfortunate that the fieldwork spans 23 July to 4 August – it was in the middle of that period that he agreed to roll back most of the reforms. It would've been interesting to have a poll conducted right before the backflip (and another one after it)

oops, I hadn't finished reading

At the same time, during the implementation of the field stage, we saw a trend that among the first 500 respondents, the level of trust was 55%, among the second 522 respondents (i.e., those interviewed later) it was already 60%. That is, perhaps immediately after July 22, 2025, there was a somewhat deeper decline in trust, but further, in early August 2025, there was some improvement in the situation (possibly due to actions to repeal the Law and additional focus on issues of international relations / war).