I made a related market on the potential outcomes of the US DOJ vs Apple lawsuit:

What happened on the 17th?

@retr0id as far as i can tell, it was just @firstuserhere reposting the market

@DylanSlagh many such cases

If the battery is technically user replaceable, but in practice very difficult to replace, does that count?

@nic_kup no

usually don't come across markets with >30 traders, let alone 80, with probability hovering at 50%

@firstuserhere Good scissors questions take a lot of skills to pose.

Firstly, there is still a long way to go for the EU battery law. Thus, the related details of the law are still up for debate and need formal approval by the Council of the EU. On the other hand, a user-removable battery is just against the design concept for waterproofing. It will otherwise cause the iPhone to stop complying with IPXX or have to spend more money on product development. As a leader in the smartphone market, I don't think that the iPhone will sacrifice its performance this much. They will definitely try to negotiate with the EU so an iPhone with a user-removable battery design is unlikely released 3 years later.

Reference: https://www.theverge.com/2023/6/24/23771064/european-union-battery-regulation-ecodesign-user-replacable-batteries

Making sense of the EU’s fight for user-replaceable smartphone batteries

The EU is passing regulation it hopes will result in user-replaceable smartphone batteries. But there’s a lot more going on behind the scenes.

Why is this so different to https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-iphone-be-sold-in-the-eu-w?r=SGFsbGU ?

Will the iPhone be sold in the EU with a user-replaceable battery by 2027?

75% chance. Today the EU demanded that phone manufacturers have to put user-replaceable batteries in smartphones by 2027. Will Apple actually do it?

@Halle because the EU regulation comes into effect in 2027.

@gigab0nus but I think they both close at the end of 2026?

@Halle oh yeah you are right. One thing I learned on this platform is that "by" usually means "by the end of". So I suppose the closing date on the other one is a mistake.

@gigab0nus no it does not, this is a common thing that people say, yet it is simply not true. "by" can mean either before or at the end of the year. Both interpretations are used a lot.

We have to clarify what counts as a replacable battery. It is already replaceable, replacing just causes a permanent warning in the settings.

@gigab0nus That's correct! This market is about whether Apple launches an iphone with user-replaceable battery as compliant with EU guidelines

@firstuserhere These guidelines are applicable for other things like the iPad too, right?

@firstuserhere Okay so its just about if they do it 3 months early. And that the iPhone brand is still continued as we know it.

@firstuserhere I havent read too much about it, but what I heard is that it is pretty general, so also iPad

@gigab0nus Say no more

Far far far too lucrative to force those trapped in the walled garden to spend more on repair and replacement.

Only available in EU counts?

@rpominov I think it's unlikely to happen this way but yes, that will counf

Related question localized for EU: