Will any foundation model score 75 or higher on The Foundation Model Transparency Index by the end of 2024? (LLama2: 54)
Plus
13
Ṁ466Dec 31
45%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The top-scoring model scores only 54 out of 100. No major foundation model developer is close to providing adequate transparency, revealing a fundamental lack of transparency in the AI industry.
There are 100 indicators that determine this score:
Read more: https://crfm.stanford.edu/fmti/
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will any foundation models/LLMs be able to reliably come up with novel unparalleled misalignments before EOY 2024?
54% chance
Will the mean score for The Foundation Model Transparency Index be 50% or more by the end of 2025? (current: 37%)
52% chance
Will any model get above human level on the Simple Bench benchmark before September 1st, 2025.
55% chance
Will we see improvements in the TruthfulQA LLM benchmark in 2024?
74% chance
🐕 OpenLLMs: Will Any Open Source LLM on the HuggingFace OpenLLM Leaderboard Significantly Gain in Avg Score by YE 2024?
49% chance
Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?
54% chance
LLM Hallucination: Will an LLM score >90% on SimpleQA before 2026?
55% chance
Will an LLM be able to match the ground truth >85% of the time when performing PII detection by 2024 end?
84% chance
will top LLM models use formal methods by EOY 2024?
19% chance
Will a open source pure Mamaba LLM surpass 82 MMLU on MMLU (5-shot) before end of year 2024?
25% chance