What do you think will be GPT-5's "hook"?

Plus

Ṁ1716

2031

72%

Very large context window, or another way to give the model long-term memory

64%

Audio Modality

56%

capable of online learning

55%

Personalized to you, the user

45%

Online learning of specialized agents(finetuning, PEFTs, etc.)

40%

Operates autonomously with instructions from you

38%

Exact-query of training data or knowledge databases(similar to Google RETRO)

35%

Video Modality

34%

(Near) real-time update of training data (data delay is within 6 months and is kept updated)

31%

New Neural Network Architecture

25%

Faster speed(smaller model, architecture improvements, mixture of experts keeping most parameters unused during inference, etc.)

24%

Seed option to create the question

21%

Acts autonomously

19%

Designed to inference cheaper than GPT-4(price must be lower)

19%

Has a catchier name

Add your predictions. I will not trade heavily (i may make small predictions with 1 mana for myself) because my subjective judgement might come into play.

Resolves YES to those that are more or less correct (resolves according to the spirit) or to 50% (if technically true but not in spirit) or to NO (if not true).

All predictions will be evaluated upon a release, if there ever is one.

Do not submit spam or irrelevant options, those will be N/A'd

Inspired by this tweet (by @Mira )

If no GPT-5 is released this decade, the market will be N/A'd. You can trade on whether that will happen here:

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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1,000

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3.00

11 Comments

38 Holders

142 Trades

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bought Ṁ10 YES

What is google RETRO? Can’t find any mentions of it online

@mariopasquato @Mira @MiraBot

@mariopasquato https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.04426

WTF why do Google scientists not understand how big O notation works? I've seen people misuse big O notation like this in every day use but in a paper this is too much

reposted

reposting because the launch may be near

bought Ṁ70 NO

This market only applies to AIs called GPT-5, so this is technically impossible

Imagine ChatGPT but Google gave it all of your info

To clarify, this needs to be something significantly different. Something like Flash-attention that's just a faster version of transformers won't count. It doesn't necessarily need to not contain transformers, but it needs to be a bigger change than an improvement to a single aspect of the architecture or a better implementation

Resolves to whether the prediction was correct or whether it was a "hook" i.e. heavily advertised by OpenAI as its distinguishing feature, or notable in being different from other leading models?

@Mira To a hook.

@Mira

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