Will the S&P500 be greater than 4x its Jan 1, 2023 price on Jan 1, 2033?
Plus
17
Ṁ6062033
55%
chance
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4x in ten years is a 14.9% annual growth rate. This seems unlikely to happen if not for economic growth driven by AI. This is basically a bet that AI bring significant economic growth within ten years.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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The S&P could also rise due to high inflation rates (see the Argentinian stock market as an extreme example). I would give a lower chance if you considered the inflation adjusted growth rate.