Resolution:
I will define a "banger" as a tweet with 420+ likes (i.e. the number shown publicly on the tweet itself).
Resolves YES if @jim writes multiple (2 or more) bangers on the @ManifoldMarkets Twitter account within one month of his first tweet on that account. Resolves NO if one month passes from his first tweet and there have not been 2+ bangers.
Resolves N/A if @jim does not tweet at least once from @ManifoldMarkets by the end of March.
Details:
Note that the tweets do not indicate their author, but I am confident I can ask @jim or staff who was behind a given tweet (and the date of his first tweet).
420+ likes is an arbitrary threshold, but note that it's (1) achievable (the Manifold account has had a number of tweets go way higher e.g.), but (2) difficult (most tweets on that account get very little engagement).
Update 2025-02-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Non-top-level posts count:
Replies qualify: Tweets that are replies (like the linked example) are valid for this market, provided they meet the banger criteria.
1,000
3.00@jim yeah I didn’t give it much thought but given that the example I linked to is a reply, seems like that should count for this market
@SirSalty imo jim's contract should stipulate that he has to bet on himself in this market -> skin in the game or no deal
@jim never lose hope anon https://www.socialplug.io/services/buy-twitter-likes
do we know what his personal twitter @ is and when he's taking over/when he took over the account and if he'll be the primary poster?
my default expectation is it's v hard to do this especially w the new algo that instantly suppresses anything that isnt starting to take off
do we know what his personal twitter @ is
and when he's taking over/when he took over the account
and if he'll be the primary poster?
unfortunately i know the answer to none of these things. just that jim might be doing some tweeting from the main account
(well i am pretty sure he won't be the only poster but i dunno about "primary")