This resolves based on the number of senators who vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of Health and Human Services—whether or not he is actually confirmed is irrelevant.
If RFK's nomination is withdrawn, or it is clear that no vote will be held, this resolves N/A.
For reference, Tom Price (Trump's first nominee for HHS secretary) was confirmed 52-47 (i.e. 52 votes in favor).
This may close before the vote is held, if the timing is clear.
1,000
3.00Note from the description:
If RFK's nomination is withdrawn, or it is clear that no vote will be held, this resolves N/A.
So this market is not a straightforward arbitrage with other "will RFK be confirmed as HHS" markets (e.g.). I would guess that many scenarios where RFK fails to be confirmed do not involve a confirmation vote.
And 50+ votes is not required to be confirmed. E.g. John Ratcliffe was confirmed as DNI 49-44. Confirmation does not matter for this market, just the number of senators that vote in favor.
@Ziddletwix (I'm highlighting this because I'm taking NO on 0-49, and I want people to be aware—this does not cover many cases where RFK fails to be the nominee, it requires RFK to be put up for a vote and to receive 49 or fewer votes. Entirely possible, but more narrow.)
@Ziddletwix Thanks for clarifying! I'm betting on YES for 0-49 mostly because I think Trump has enough hubris to try to push the confirmation through even if the votes aren't there. But I still think N/A is more likely.