Will we discover a new element by the year 2500
Plus
16
Ṁ476Jan 1
94%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I was always curious if people would think that a new element would be discovered or not in this millennia.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
We’ve “discovered” 5 new elements since 2000. Most only exist for a nanosecond and are created smashing unstable elements together.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will a new element be discovered before the end of 2025?
10% chance
Will element 119 be discovered by the end of 2030?
36% chance
Will element 119 “Ununennium” be discovered before 2030?
40% chance
Will we discover a new, (believed to be) non-composite particle by 2050?
45% chance
When a new element be added to the periodic table of elements before the end of 2030?
40% chance
When a new element be added to the periodic table of elements before the end of 2040?
62% chance
Which hypothetical elementary particles will be discovered by 2060?
Will we discover aliens before 2030
14% chance
Will a new planet be discovered in our solar system by 2035?
10% chance
Will a new subatomic particle be experimentally confirmed to exist before 2040?
30% chance