When will Betelgeuse go supernova ?
When will Betelgeuse go supernova ?
Basic
9
Ṁ5369999
5822
expected
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is a numeric market, how many years starting from now (2023 = 1, 2024=2, and so on), with a log scale.
According to this article, it is expected to be between 10000 and 100000, however the star has been acting strange recently. The fun part is we won't have much warnings.
There is also this market but it is closed. Also I prefer a market not affected by technology expectations.
My other "star market" is affected by technology expectations more than astronomy predictions. I think it won't happen for this one.
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1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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