What will the Party distribution of the next 2 US presidential terms be? (2029-2037) [> 6k Liquidity]
Plus
12
Ṁ80642033
26%
R-D
24%
D-R
23%
D-D
18%
R-R
3%
one or more Third Party terms
3%
1.1%
Resolves to NO following Trump Reelection
1.1%
Resolves to NO following Trump Reelection
1%
Resolves to NO following Trump Reelection
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@traders I updated this market to fit with election results. Since it’s impossible to resolve the Harris win contigent options to NO, I changed their name.
@mods sorry to ping but I can’t figure out how to resolve the false options to NO, while keeping the market open for the other options rhat are still possible.
If the presidential “term” system still exists yes.
So if it is like russia and putin wins three terms in a row and it is still referred to as terms then it would resolve R-R-R.
But if they somehow change the constitution so that you can be “king for life” or whetver and the terminology doesn’t use “presidential terms”, ie. presidency ceases to exist, and resolves to “other”
.
Related questions
Related questions
Which people will be elected U.S. president before 2033?
Which party will win the Presidency? Will there be a US recession between 2025 and 2028 (inclusive)?
Will there be a third party US president before 2050.
28% chance
Which party will win the popular vote in the 2024 US Presidential election (by subgroup)?
Who will be President of the United States on 1 Jan 2030?
Will there be a third party US president before 2100.
45% chance
What will be the party of the next President of the United States?
Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?
Will the party that controls of the House of Representatives change between February 2025 and October 2026?
9% chance
Which political party wins the US presidency in 2036?