Update 2025-06-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be based on whether one side achieves most of its strategic goals, with a huge misalignment in goal achievement required for a "one side wins" resolution.
Russia's strategic goals:
Making Ukraine dependent on Russia (via annexation or political influence).
Huge territorial gains (the creator will almost certainly resolve to a Russian win if 50% of Ukraine is annexed).
Recognition of Crimea as Russian.
Ukraine's strategic goals:
Getting back pre-2022 territory.
Staying independent.
(Getting back pre-2014 territory).
Some territorial gains for Russia would not necessarily mean a Russian victory if Ukraine remains independent. Conversely, any territorial concessions by Ukraine will make a Ukrainian victory very unlikely.
In ambiguous cases, the creator will make a judgement call after a period of discussion with traders.
1,000
3.00@benjaminIkuta It is not necessary to conquer all of the territory to call it "one side wins". E.g. WW1 was won by the Entente but Austria, Bulgaria and Germany existed until WW2. The main question is whether one side is able to achieve most of its strategic goals:
Russia:
Make Ukraine dependent on Russia either by annexing it, or getting political influence inside of Ukraine (e.g. appointing government officials, block laws etc.) either by obligations of a potential peace treaty or by bringing Ukraine in a position where they can't deny Russian requests (de armament, no third party intervention in case of future attacks, economic challenges due to territory losses, ...)
Huge territorial gains
Recognition of Crimea as Russian
Ukraine:
Getting back their pre 2022 territory
Stay independent
(Getting back their pre 2014 territory)
Be aware that there has to be a huge misalignement in what strategic goals both sides achieve with the agreement to count towards a one side wins resolution. Some territorial gains doesn't (necessarily) mean I would resolve to Russian victory if Ukraine as a state would still be able to exist independently. On the other hand in case of 50% of Ukraine becomes Russian I'll almost certainly resolve to one side wins. The same way Ukraine doesn't have to conquer Moskau to count as Ukrainian victory, but territorial concessions will make it very unlikely to resolve towards Ukrainian victory.
There surely is a certain grey area in which you can argument for both resolutions in which case I'm going to make a judgement call. In this case I'll close the market, give a reasoning why I'm currently leaning towards a certain resolution and give all parties the possibility to bring additional points towards my attention. (For obvious reasons I'm not going to bet in this market)
Utilizing night vision equipment, which can be found at https://www.defendandcarry.com/night-vision will allow us to improve our vision and performance in low-light circumstances, which will in turn open up a multitude of potential for a variety of applications. Using a wide variety of concepts, these cutting-edge devices improve visibility in conditions where there is almost no light at all.