https://manifold.markets/Twig/will-measles-become-endemic-in-the Traders on this question may also be interested in this other question about the current measles outbreak.

Will measles become endemic in the U.S. due to the current Texas outbreak?

52% chance. Per the CDC, "In 2000, endemic measles was declared "eliminated" from the United States. For measles, elimination is defined as the absence of endemic measles transmission for a period of 12 months or more in the presence of an adequate surveillance system." A recent NBC article quotes Dr. Jonathan Temte, part of the team who declared endemic measles eliminated in 2000, as saying "I would guess that the likelihood of re-establishment of measles in the United States is greater than 50%." This question resolves YES if at least one reputable news outlet reports that a chain of transmission for the current measles outbreak has persisted for at least 52 weeks, or explicitly states that measles has become endemic per the CDC's criterion mentioned above. To allow for potential delays in reporting, this question closes in April 2026. I may trade on this market.

@Twig Based on Texas data, the current outbreak's growth seems to have leveled off.

CDC data also suggest the rapid growth observed through February and March has ended. Reporting delays may be a factor - but I update downwards here because I do not see a sustained exponential trend even in late February; instead, it seems linear at worst.

@Twig I have made an error in my analysis! I have corrected this now, removed early noisy datapoints, and added additional data points from the Wayback Machine's archive of the Texas DSHS reporting page. I am now less optimistic.

@Twig

The Texas data has again failed to reassure me. But I have not compared against other past outbreaks, so perhaps the continued rise is expected and the outbreak will be contained soon.

@Twig

The trend continues.

The overall trend now at least appears more linear than exponential - which gives some comfort, at least. Note that "USA" data, sourced from https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html, contains cases not associated with the current outbreak, while "TX" data - from https://www.dshs.texas.gov/news-alerts/measles-outbreak-2025 - does not.

Measles Outbreak – April 11, 2025 | Texas DSHS

@Twig As of the latest Texas DSHS figures, the data appear optimistic. However, with continued spread to other states, I am looking intently to this week's CDC figures.

@Twig

This week's CDC figures, and today's new Texas data, continue to show a linear trend.