How much fWAR will Shohei Ohtani accumulate in the 2025 MLB regular season?

Ṁ3379

Oct 2

99%

At least 0.0 (the minimum to not be considered worse than a replacement level player)

99%

At least 1.1 (what he got from Pit WAR alone in 2018)

99%

At least 1.6 (what he got in 2019)

99%

At least 2.4 (what he got from Pit WAR alone in 2023)

99%

At least 2.7 (what he got from Bat WAR alone in 2018)

99%

At least 3.0 (what he got from Pit WAR alone in 2021)

99%

At least 3.6 (what he got from Bat WAR alone in 2022)

99%

At least 3.8 (what he got in 2018)

99%

At least 4.5

99%

At least 5.0 (what he got from Bat WAR alone in 2021)

98.3%

At least 5.6 (what he got from Pit WAR alone in 2022)

93%

At least 6.5 (what he got from Bat WAR alone in 2023)

92%

At least 7.0

66%

At least 7.8 (what Freddie Freeman got in his highest WAR season, 2023)

50%

At least 8.0 (what he got in 2021)

40%

At least 8.5

30%

At least 8.9 (what he got in 2023)

20%

At least 9.1 (what he got in 2024)

15%

At least 9.2 (what he got in 2022)

At least 9.5

For explanation of WAR (wins above replacement), see here: https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/

fWAR refers to WAR as calculated by the website Fangraphs: https://www.fangraphs.com/

Resolution will be based on Fangraphs numbers.

WAR can be negative / go backwards so resolution will not occur when he initially crosses the mark.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

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