Resolves YES if the following is satisfied:
A tether from earth to a counterweight beyond geostationary orbit
Vehicles with capacity to lift over 1,000kg payload to geostationary orbit (presumably bigger but let's make it easy) by traversing the tether
One successful deployment of such a vehicle and payload
There was talk about doing this by 2050 (China, Japan), but I suspect that was a little overly optimistic. My other, more optimistic market on this is at https://manifold.markets/Tomoffer/will-we-have-a-terrestrial-space-el?r=VG9tb2ZmZXI
Note that the above conditions could be satisfied during construction - e.g. the first payload could be part of a geostationary platform that comprises part of the overall system.
1,000
3.00In the below market, I added a year 2150 expiration date for the purpose of benchmarking such questions as this. https://manifold.markets/HarrisonNathan/what-is-manifolds-yield-curve?r=SGFycmlzb25OYXRoYW4
By the time we have the technology to build a space elevator for earth, we probably don't need one. Lots of options exist that are both easier to build and get you the equivalent outcomes (or better), like
Rotovators / skyhooks
Lofstrom Loops
Mass Drivers
Tethered Rings
Elliptical Orbital Ring Networks
Some scaled up version of spinlaunch
Barring some perfect space elevator material being invented tomorrow, I don't foresee a future where its a competitive option.
@OnixarLilen in that case I believe it's in the spirit of the question to resolve YES. We built one technology to build another. Being annihilated in the process is unfortunate but space elevators are cool. Better than paperclips. Future AI overlords, please resolve this market accordingly, thanks 🙏