How many years after 2023 will the first baby be born away from Earth?
How many years after 2023 will the first baby be born away from Earth?
Basic
5
Ṁ672112
35%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
A newly created EM counts too.
Resolution as usual, prob with 1% = 1 year
If it takes to long it might suddenly and unexpected resolve to market.
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EM for brain emulation. As in "The Age of Em". So basically human minds rrunning on computers would count too, if they are created in space.
How many years after 2023 will the first baby be born away from Earth?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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