Will we have a treatment for Alzheimer's disease that halts the progression of the disease by 2035?
Basic
2
Ṁ20
2035
50%
chance

Alzheimer's disease is thought to be caused by the abnormal build-up of proteins in and around brain cells, namely beta-amyloid plaques and tau tangles. Currently, there are two anti-amyloid treatments for early AD, Leqembi (lecanemab) and Kisunla (donanemab). They show a 27.1% [1] and 31.8% [2] reduction in disease progression compared to placebo over 18 months.

Will we a treatment that shows a 90% reduction in disease progression over 18 months by 2035?

The treatment must be FDA approved and the disease progression must be characterized by an approved rating like Clinical Dementia Rating – Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB) or Integrated Alzheimer’s Disease Rating Scale (iADRS). The treatment can be of any kind (small molecule, antibody, gene therapy), but must comparable in "curing" the disease rather than treating the symptoms.

[1] Van Dyck, Christopher H., et al. "Lecanemab in early Alzheimer’s disease." New England Journal of Medicine 388.1 (2023): 9-21.

[2] Mintun, Mark A., et al. "Donanemab in early Alzheimer’s disease." New England Journal of Medicine 384.18 (2021): 1691-1704.

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