What will be my all-time mana profit at the end of 2024?
Basic
12
Ṁ330Dec 31
18,851
expected
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@traders Somehow there was a huge loss spike yesterday but I have no idea what caused it, it doesn't seem to be shown in my trades tab sorted by 1d or 1w loss, does anyone know how I can figure it out?
@nikki I appreciate your enthusiasm but care to explain the large bet on extreme profits? 😅
The gaussian curve is ruined 😥
reposted
My current small bet centered on 8000 mana is based on the assumption my growth will remain approximately linear, if you think it will become exponential, bet it up, if you think I'll suffer sudden huge losses like so many others or become much less active, bet it down, even if you agree with my guess, there's positive expected value in smoothing out the distribution to a Gaussian :)
Related questions
Related questions
When will I reach 1 million mana of profits?
How much USD worth of mana will be sold on Dec 2024?
Will I have 10000 Mana in profit during 2024?
9% chance
Will mana attain value and establish an exchange rate before the end of 2024?
19% chance
How much mana will Manifold sell in 2024?
Will I donate >1 million mana in total before 2025?
67% chance
Will someone reach 1B mana profit on Manifold before EOY 2025?
18% chance
Will my net worth reach 100k mana by the end of 2024?
94% chance
How much USD worth of mana will be sold on Dec 2025?