If X is true, will Democrats get a majority in the Senate in 2026?
13
Ṁ4522026
47%
Donald Trump is president for the midterms
38%
Donald Trump is not president for the midterms
34%
AOC stably has >20% nomination chance per prediction markets
34%
There is no US government shutdown in 2025
28%
Newsom stably has >20% nomination chance per prediction markets
27%
Democrats get a majority in the House in 2026
26%
The GOP holds a midterm convention
25%
There is a US government shutdown in 2025
Resolves YES for every option that happens if Democrats win a Senate majority in 2026, NO for every option that happens if they don't, and N/A for every option that doesn't happen.
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