Will Artificial Superintelligence be developed in the USA while Donald Trump is president?
Plus
34
Ṁ32112029
35%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@extrasensory_homunculus I think both that and the odds of him not making it to 2029 are sufficiently low enough to only account for a few percentage points, for now
Related questions
Related questions
If Trump is elected, will the shutdown of the US AI Safety Institute be announced in 2025?
42% chance
Conditional on the US introducing AI safety regulations, will China "win the AI race"?
17% chance
If Trump is elected in 2024, will the US impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?
14% chance
Will Trump's first year of presidency be positive for AI safety?
24% chance
If Trump wins, who will be the White House’s important AI policy officials in 2025?
If Trump wins, will the US government enact legislation that significantly slows down AI progress?
24% chance
Will an AI become president of the United States before 2040?
7% chance
Will AI get regulated after the US president election until the end of 2025?
60% chance
Will Trump repeatedly raise concerns about existential risk from AI before the end of 2025?
15% chance
Will xAI receive preferential treatment* by the Trump administration in 2025?
59% chance