Will gender affirming surgery for prisoners continue to be provided under a Trump or Harris administration?
Will gender affirming surgery for prisoners continue to be provided under a Trump or Harris administration?
Plus
15
Ṁ20782026
1D
1W
1M
ALL
42%
Trump
Resolved
70%Harris
If any state continues to perform gender affirming surgeries for transgender prisoners through 2025, the person who is elected president resolves YES. They also resolve YES if they sign legislation that expands such care nationally, even if the surgeries aren't performed in 2025. If neither happens, they resolve NO.
Here's an article about how this is already happening in California due to 8th Amendment constitutional rights.
Thresholds:
10+ surgeries performed in 2025, across all states
At least one state still has a policy of doing so at end 2025, and such a policy isn't in violation of federal mandate
The non-elected candidate will resolve to MKT on inauguration day, pending my availability.
Hot tip: this is really a question about whether Nothing Ever Happens.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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