Will 2025 be referred to as the start of the second Great Depression?
19
Ṁ2685
2026
23%
chance

In the first Great Depression, the stock market fell, leading to an initial crisis, and then the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 severely curtailed global trade both by instituting tariffs on US goods and inviting retaliatory tariffs from other countries.

Similarly, in 2025, the stock market crashed, and then worldwide tariffs were imposed. However, whereas the 1930 trade war only increased tariffs to 20%, the weighted average United States tariffs in 2025 already falls between 25% and 30% (depending on source), even before the cycle of retaliatory tariffs has begun.

This market will resolve to YES if, at any time before January 1, 2027, it is the consensus of largely unbiased mainstream sources like The New York Times, CNN, ABC, or CBS that the economy is or was in a "depression" after January 1, 2025. Use of the word "recession" is insufficient for YES. Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO.

As there are no official criteria for what a "depression" is, it is impossible to create a numeric answer for this market; however, it is to be understood that the criteria for a recession (two quarters of GDP losses) are required for the market to resolve to YES in addition to the criteria above. Additionally, one article is insufficient; there must be many articles and TV reports from multiple writers with a consensus that the economy is either in a depression or in some new term that is functionally equivalent to what happened in the early 1930s.

Note that the tariffs are not required to be the only cause; AI layoffs and wars may also lead to a YES resolution.

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The title seems to imply a much more specific wording than the description

Also based on the recently released AI-2027 forecast it seems moderately likely that strong AGI, ASI, ASI+ and the accompanying explosive GDP growth will all happen within a few years, so the short term tariff recession may not be long enough to become a depression, which last time was like a decade long

I find it quite odd how people are betting that this doesn't happen. I would not want to be on the NO side of this trade below 20%. The economic circumstances now are worse than at the start of the first depression because of the impending AI job losses, and unlike the first depression, the federal government is not embarking on massive hiring programs.

Correction: I mistakenly posted that the 1930s tariff rate was 20% and the current is 22.5%. That incorrectly compared averages. The correct weighted average, according to what types of goods were imported at the time of tariff introduction, is currently between 25% and 30%, depending on source.

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