Who will have the most popular AI assistant at the end of 2025? (judged by active users)

Plus

Ṁ1064

2025

16%

Google

40%

OpenAI

18%

Meta

27%

Other

I will resolve this market shortly after 2025 ends using all the information I can find online. I will also engage with traders and allow everyone to present their arguments. If the available information is not conclusive, then I will wait for the 2024 earning reports to be released early February before making an informed decision and resolving the market. I won’t bet on this market to avoid bias.

I believe each of these companies has a shot. OpenAI through their iPhone integration, Google with their distribution advantage as the default homepage on many devices, and Meta through their popular apps like WhatsApp and Facebook. I’m excited to see how this plays out.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

7 Comments

21 Holders

38 Trades

Sort by:

amazon making moves (don’t think this would be enough to seriosly compete though)

I think this will be a really fun market to watch over the next 16 months. I am planning on adding liquidity by upgrading the market to PLUS once I have enough MANA

feel free to contribute to the cause by sending me some mana 😉

I think the company with the biggest distribution channel will win. All LLMs are converging to the same quality and the differences won’t be noticeable by the mainstream ai consumer.

bought Ṁ50 YES

@Soli Yes and that's why I am buying up Meta. Meta AI Assistant available now on WhatsApp and Instagram.

400M monthly users, 40M daily per Zuckerberg.

https://www.cnbctv18.com/technology/meta-ai-has-400-million-monthly-active-users-says-mark-zuckerberg-19468593.htm

https://www.theinformation.com/articles/metas-ai-assistant-wins-millions-of-users-in-challenge-to-chatgpt

@SimranRahman agree, meta has a real chance of being on top but it will be close. ChatGPT reached 100mil users in their first year so I assume they atleast have ~200mil active users by now. If we add all the users they get from the Apple integration that launches end of the year then they also have a chance.

Related questions

Related questions