When will the Tobacco and Vapes bill receive its second reading in the Commons?
Basic
7
Ṁ2438
resolved Apr 16
100%98.9%
April
0.1%
Not before the next general election
0.4%
May
0.1%
June
0.1%
July
0.1%
August
0.1%
September
0.1%
October
0.1%
November
0.1%
December

The government is pushing forward with their plans for a "lifetime smoking ban" where the age at which people can buy cigarettes will keep rising every year and no one born after 2008 will ever be allowed to buy cigarettes.

More detail is here and the proposed legislation is here.

The market for whether the permenantly rising age restriction will become law is here - /SimonGrayson/will-a-lifetime-smoking-ban-become

The proposed legislation was published and received its first reading in the Commons on 20th March.

The first reading is a formality where the title of the bill is read out. The second reading is the first time that there is a proper debate in the Commons and the Commons will vote on whether to block the legislation or let it continue to the committee stage (it's rare for MPs to block legislation at this stage, but not unheard of).

When will the bill have its second reading?

Notes:

  • This market refers to the debate/vote on the second reading. If the debate goes ahead and there is a vote on the second reading which fails (ie. the Commons decides against giving the bill its second reading), the market will still resolve to that month.

  • The "not before the general election" option takes priority over other months - if Parliament is dissolved for the election then the market resolves to that option. Any legislation from the next government would need another first reading so it would be seen as a different bill.

  • Parliament goes into recess tomorrow. In the very unlikely event that that changes and this bill somehow receives a second reading in March, the market will resolve to April as the earliest option.

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bought Ṁ100 YES

The debate is due to begin this afternoon and I will resolve the market to April if the debate begins as scheduled.

There is due to be a vote at 7:00 PM this evening. How many Tories will vote no?

/SimonGrayson/how-many-conservative-mps-will-vote-e37a1e957e4d

bought Ṁ50 YES

From the body of this article, the Second Reading is currently planned for next Tuesday, 16th April:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/apr/11/boris-johnson-calls-rishi-sunak-smoking-ban-absolutely-nuts

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