Will the next US president lift the embargo on Cuba?
Will the next US president lift the embargo on Cuba?
Plus
25
Ṁ7242032
31%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Info: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_embargo_against_Cuba
Resolves YES if most economic sanctions against Cuba are removed. Resolves YES even if a small subset of products remain controlled, or if specific individuals withing Cuba remain sanctioned.
This is the base rate market for this conditional:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
So how does this resolve when the current president lifts the sanctions?
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2025/01/14/nation/biden-cuba-state-sponsor-terrorism/
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Conditional Election market - Will the next US president lift the embargo on Cuba?
Will the USA lift the embargo on Cuba by Jan 1st 2032?
67% chance
Will the next US president speak Spanish?
4% chance
Will the next person elected US vice president assume the presidency?
27% chance
Will the next president be impeached?
48% chance
Sitting US president visits Cuban Government Leaders in Cuba before 2034
42% chance
When will US citizens be allowed to travel to Cuba for tourism?
Will US citizens be allowed to travel to Cuba for tourism by the start of 2030?
74% chance
Will the next president of USA revert to Gulf of Mexico
38% chance
Will the next president be a black guy??