Same as the main market but the AI must only be at the level of the worst filmmakers, rather than the best. So instead of a Marvel movie level of quality, think The Room level of quality. That's the yardstick that I will be using. Alternatively it can be any other well-known bad movie, like Birdemic or Who Killed Captain Alex. It doesn't need to have the "so bad it's good" qualities of The Room, but it needs to have a minimally coherent plot structure and cinematography. It must not be too painful for humans to watch the entire thing, and it needs to have the basics like characters say and do things that advance the plot, at least usually.
Main market:
1,000
3.00I think it'll happen in 2026. The workflow for creating AI generated videos is already being streamlined.https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1gse2lk/making_the_coca_cola_ai_ad_in_5_minutes_speedrun/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
@Shump i’m assuming this has the same resolution criteria apart from quality as the main market (needs to be generated by one software/agent/whatever with a single prompt, not strung together by a person from a number of AI programs)
This market is so mispriced. Getting rid of loans has been terrible for the epistemics of these 5-year markets in general. Basically everyone who is savvy just avoids betting on them altogether; the only reason I haven’t sold out of my position is because it’s mostly still old loans from pre-pivot manifold.
no one has put it into a single application, but you could:
1. use claude 3.5 to write a movie script
2. have claude convert that movie script into a list of shots
3. generate images for each of the shots using flux
4. animate each of the shots using runwayml
5. generate sound using FoleyCrafter
6. generate spoken dialogue using elevenlabs
7. animate the dialogue using hedra
8. generate background music using udio
the whole process would take a couple weeks and cost several hundred dollars, but the question says "able to" not "able to quickly and cheaply"
@LoganZoellner No, that’s explicitly false. Read the resolution criteria for the main market (and clarifications in the comments).
It would not count if you did these things separately.
I don't know what the major obstacles are here.
Context windows that can cover a movie script: largely solved
Video generation: largely solved
Audio generation: largely solved
Script writing: largely solved
I have no relevant expertise in this area, so I welcome correction... but all we're missing is an agential ai here right? One that can review outputs and assemble them, something equivalent to executive functioning in humans. This is a nut that every major player is trying to crack afaik.
@VerySeriousPoster I'd say only audio generation is "mostly solved" but I'm not even sure we have Tommy Wiseau levels of voice acting yet.
@Shump Wiseau levels are the highest levels possible where AI achieves perfection and breaks through that, so it can finally aim lower convincingly
already has text to video ai
@Joshua It can be an animation movie, but it still needs to stand up to standards of animated movies that actually get released to theaters then, not some home animation. It defnitely needs to be more coherent than this. I don't think this is made from a prompt either.
@Unown It's also not fully AI generated, only the script is done by LLM, the models and backgrounds are made by humans, model movements are just random.
Also also it's not "generated to a prompt" - a decent amount of human work and setup went to pertaining text to speech models, creating 3D environments and hooking everything up to LLM script generator.
The hard part of making a marvel movie is not the script. I don't think this should be much higher than the main market.