How many hurricanes in the Atlantic in 2024?

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Ṁ19k

Jan 1

0.1%

0-6

0.1%

7-10

98.9%

11-13

0.4%

14-15

0.2%

16-17

0.1%

18-20

0.1%

21-24

0.1%

25 or more

The number of hurricanes in the Atlantic in 2024 as determined by NOAA.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#2024 Hurricane Season

#Hurricanes

#Tropical Storms

#Atlantic Hurricane Season

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1,000

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3.00

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Current count is 10, thank you Oscar.

The current count is 9 and for the record, Nadine would have to become a cane in the Atlantic to count for this market.

@ScottSupak I guess a hurricane has never formed over land?

@ScottSupak why would this be the case? I think the classifier of "forms in the Atlantic" means rather than the Pacific. I think if it forms over land this would still count

bought Ṁ2 YES

@benshindel I'll wait for NOAA to give an official number of course, but the title of the question is "The number of hurricanes **in the Atlantic** in 2024"

Of course, I've left myself open to the possibility of something forming in the Pacific and crossing over to become a hurricane, so in the future, I'll use "formed" to be more precise.

@ChristopherRandles

> Only 2 percent of all Atlantic tropical cyclones have formed over land (1851-2015), according to Michael Lowry, hurricane specialist with The Weather Channel.

Not sure if they went on to become Atlantic hurricanes? But if they did, they'd count!

@ScottSupak So if a tropical storm forms in the Atlantic, moves inland, becomes a hurricane 2 miles inland from East coast of Mexico, weakens to a tropical storm 10 miles from East coast of Mexico and continues to Pacific where it might or might not restrengthen to a hurricane, it would never have been a hurricane "in the atlantic" but it is an atlantic formed and named system that became a hurricane then this resolves as?

I doubt it will happen so no worries really.

@ChristopherRandles then actually it counts as 7 hurricanes and the market resolves to 18-20

@ChristopherRandles I love hypotheticals as much as the next guy and in this case the next guy works at NOAA and I'll go by his count of "Atlantic Hurricanes" lol

sold Ṁ0 YES

And Kirk makes 7

sold Ṁ2 YES

Updating due to the lack of activity -- basing on a 1991-2023 climatology:

As of now there are 4 recorded hurricanes, and none expected in the next 2-3 days. Normally would expect by August 23 there would be about a 69% chance of having at least 4 hurricanes, a 51% of at least 5, a 34% chance of at least 6, and a 20% chances of at least 7.

For the rest of the year climatologically, there is about a 50% chance we end up with 0-6 hurricanes and a 48% with 7-10. Given the prior forecasts of an above average season can't decide definitively which scenario is more likely given about 40% of the hurricane season is still remaining, but I'm leaning towards a normal season.

Will try to remember in about 10 days or thereabouts when the current forecast disturbance in the TWO for the Caribbean resolves relevant to this market.

bought Ṁ10 YES

Have to update early as it seems PTC AL09 (soon to be Helene) will become a hurricane. There is also a wave in the Central/East tropics that looks likely to become a storm and eventually a hurricane. With this assumption we will have 6 hurricanes by Oct. 3 I'm updating.