Will I think spring 2025 was a better time for me personally than winter 2024-2025?
Will I think spring 2025 was a better time for me personally than winter 2024-2025?
5
Ṁ51Apr 19
70%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Spring 24: better than winter 23-24
Spring 23: better than winter 22-23
Spring 22: worse than winter 21-22
Spring 21: better than winter 20-21
Spring 20: better than winter 19-20
Spring 19: better than winter 18-19
Spring 18: better than winter 17-18
Spring 17: don't remember this far back
Seems like there is a clear pattern here. Is it a statistical anomaly or is there something there?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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