Follow-up to https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-or-as-a-res?play=true
I reserve the right to N/A any answer not sufficiently related to the attack.
It has occurred to me that some of these resolutions might be controversial, so I have liquidated all my positions and will not trade on this market going forward.
1,000
3.00https://x.com/tom_bike/status/1851282163351642527
Israel hit at Iran´s largest oil refinery empty oil tank, read messaging, spotted at YESTERDAY satellite image. 30.3547, 48.2861
@VonGadke I don't have the expertise to evaluate whether this is credible. I found some random person disputing this: https://x.com/Eran_Efrat/status/1850949508349465011
Will probably lean NO unless I can get more definitive evidence that doesn't require me to pick which person on Twitter I believe
@RoeyKelner Presumably yes? The Israeli retaliation back in spring used air-launched ballistic missiles apparently (not cruise). This time seems to have been heavy bombs, drones, and missiles. Although have only seen the first two confirmed.
Radar station hit at Nakhjir quite possibly missile strike
@Pjfkh Update, have now seen some analysts say that air launched ballistic missiles again (launched from planes, then climb out of / into upper atmosphere, then re entry, range 2000km) were used in these strikes
@SaviorofPlant This should resolve YES.
The 15-member council met after Israel killed the leader of Lebanon's Hezbollah and began a ground assault against the Iran-backed militant group and Iran attacked Israel in a strike that raised fears of a wider war in the Middle East.