I (would have, no longer employed there) paid for a closed/internal only prediction market at my last company. We ran a lot of a/b tests and I thought it would be fun to have people bet on the success of each test. We could also set it up so people could bet on potential tests and we could use that to help prioritize what to actually build.

I couldn't find anything like this. We did check out cultivate labs, but I forget why they wouldn't work for us. Ended up running it for a bit in a spreadsheet before giving up.

I'd be happy to not get any of the bonuses like for streaks and new traders. That's sort of an answer to the question because if it weren't for those bonuses I'd be happily buying more mana more often.

(Also I think I'd risk much larger amounts if it weren't denominated in literal pennies.)

I guess my serious answer is that I'd happily pay a monthly subscription fee for power user features like limit orders or whatever else you deem to not be newbie-friendly. (Also I think that fee should be deducted from my mana balance and there should be a feature to auto-replenish my balance when it goes negative by charging my credit card. I think it would be a huge missed opportunity if the subscription fee were charged separately in dollars.)

I would pay for ads. Either a direct ad or it could be a sponsored market that acts as an ad that I can promote. Prefer the latter. I would use it to promote side projects but I imagine tech / ai companies would pay a decent $ to advertise jobs here. (Edit: thanks 😂 )

Would pay to be able to promote/feature dashboards. Wouldn't pay for this, but maybe Manifold could put one of the trending tags up for 'sale' as well - allowing idk businesses or individuals to get prime access to manifold predictors.

I would pay to have my markets promoted externally. I have a couple of WoW markets, but seemingly not that many people on manifold are into it. I would pay $USD to have those promoted outside of the site. Something like ads on WoW related sites (I don't know how ad targeting works, but this feels like what it would do)? Use the market image as an ad, place that with keywords on the market, buy ads on behalf and take a cut. I'd be even more into this if I got mana for any signups 🤑

I would pay $USD for a “superforecaster boost”. I pay $20. Manifold takes 30%. The other $14 gets split into $3 boosts that go specifically to people with a good track record. They get the $3 if they place a > 100 mana bet.

It isn’t real money predictions! It’s just Incentivizing people to bet! Surely that isn’t illegal.

Salary estimates/predictions of various jobs, kind of like https://www.levels.fyi/ but using a prediction market to get the signal rather than a dedicated verification team.

Getting a really good match without investing (too much of) my own time on manifold.love seems worth a lot. I'd pay for that (in bounty/subsidies or some other mechanism).

Generally speaking that part of manifold seems to have a lot of value and I'd just donate to get more effort (for PR or development/improvement or whatever is needed, to get more legit profiles on it) for that.

In a similar way I'd pay for a hypothetical manifold.jobs platform as a company with a vacancy. This is already an established mechanism using recruiters/headhunters, so should be self evident that this is valuable (again, if the chances of getting a good match are high b/c of the good possible candidate pool).

I'd happily pay a subscription for some cosmetic improvements (true dark mode), fancy reacts, a colored name, the profile league ring you had when you first implemented leagues, etc.

I would pay for using APIs

Bounties with USD, with manifold taking a cut.

I would pay for real money tournaments. Pay $usd to enter. You compete against other people on a set number of questions. Whoever does “the best” gets the pot (minus manifolds cut).

I think the details on this are a real mess though. What do you do about whales coming in with lots of mana? And it probably just rewards the most online person who saw the news first. Maybe those can be solved by having a tournament specific currency that everyone gets the same amount of. But maybe that is just reimplementing prediction polls/metaculus.

Simple in browser trade scripting executed before/with limit orders, so I can for example create a limit order that triggers unless the bet that caused it is larger than threshold or by one of the users in a list.

I'd pay a recurring subscription for a live newsfeed related to my open bets, similar to how you can tell a finance news site the tickers of securities you own and receive news about just those companies. I imagine this would work by taking text from the markets I've bet in, breaking that down into keywords, and using some multi-source news service with an API to find stories related to those keywords. If the interface that showed the news headlines also showed my top bets related to that news item, I could quickly adjust my bets or create new markets.

I already pay for news subscriptions (e.g. my local newspaper) and many people who work in finance pay for finance-focused news sites, so there seems to be significant revenue potential---selling other people's news to traders is basically how Michael Bloomberg became a billionaire. Decent keyword extraction is easy and a quick Google search shows several existing news article APIs, so hopefully it wouldn't take much developer time to build a rough version and see if it actually has market potential.

I should note that such a newsfeed wouldn't be just for helping me be more effective on Manifold, but it would show stories that I'm actually interested in, because I tend to bet in markets that I find interesting. It could hopefully replace other, less personalized news sources that I currently use and so make my life overall better---which is definitely something I'm willing to pay for.

I'd cash my mana in for GPU compute, which also means I'd buy mana to make bets if I expect I can make enough profit such that the total cost is less than cloud providers.

I kind of like my idea of quadratic downvoting: https://manifold.markets/market/will-manifold-implement-mana-punish (see the discussion in the comments about how you could cost someone $x by paying $x^2)

I'd pay to be able to bulk create questions and store them with scheduled post dates. As a daily market creator, it sometimes takes 30-40 minutes to do all my daily "manifold" chores and I do it 2-3 times a day.

It makes manifold feel way more like a job where I can't bulk create and do my workflow at the start of the month but I have to do it day by day or spam my followers/people that bet on the daily markets.

ignores your prompt

Some features I have wanted in the last couple of days are:

• For "news" markets, annotating the market graph with when certain information emerged (maybe the author or trustworthy-ish users could have the ability to do this)

• The ability to make markets private to individual users, rather than just org level private markets (i.e. Google docs style granular permissions)

I would pay for a creator subscription that gives all my questions more visibilty, allows me to pin questions to the top of my profile or even have a featured question at the top and maybe even hide profit completely from my profile. In general a subscription with features aimed at users who want to become creators.