Will Claude 3.5 Opus beat OpenAI's best released model on the arena.lmsys.org leaderboard?
Basic
48
Ṁ5224Jan 1
32%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
OpenAI's best released model could be GPT-4, GPT-4o, or something else. It does not count as an OpenAI model unless it's made available to the public to try, and is known to be from OpenAI (e.g. the model can not be a secret, pseudonymous release). If arena.lmsys.org is not available at the time, the successor site or most similar leaderboard will be used.
Resolves yes if Claude 3.5 Opus is ranked above all OpenAI models 1 week after it is put on the leaderboard.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will Claude 3.5 Opus be available via API by end of 2025?
70% chance
What will Claude 3.5 Opus's reported 0-shot performance on GPQA Diamond be upon release?
Will Claude 3.5 Opus be able to draw me in tic-tac-toe while playing as O at least 1/3 of the time?
68% chance
Will Claude 3.5 Opus have a higher Chat Arena Elo than GPT-5?
7% chance
Will Claude Opus be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard two years from today (3/10/24)?
13% chance
What will be the *first* ELO Rating of Claude 3.5 Opus in the LMSYS Arena?
Will the top model by OpenAI rank 3rd (or lower) behind 2 other model families at any point before 2026?
41% chance
Will any open-source model rank in the top 3 on Chatbot Arena at the end of 2024?
15% chance
Will any open-source model rank in the top 3 on Chatbot Arena at any point in 2024? (resolves based on ELO rating)
7% chance
Will OpenAI's next major LLM (after GPT-4) surpass 70% accuracy on the GPQA benchmark?
66% chance