When will the Yudkowsky $150,000 UFO market first stay at ≥95% for a week? | Manifold

When will the Yudkowsky $150,000 UFO market first stay at ≥95% for a week?

Basic

8

Ṁ436

2028

17%

2025

14%

2026

35%

2027

30%

2028

4%

Never/later

When the above market stays ≥95% according to the web UI for at least 160 hours in any 168 hour period, this market will resolve to the year (anywhere on Earth) in which that 168 hour period ends.

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#Eliezer Yudkowsky

Get

1,000

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3.00

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