Nintendo Switch 2 prop bets [Add answers!]

Basic

Ṁ1518

2026

98.4%

Backwards compatible with digital Switch 1 games

98.4%

Backwards compatible with physical Switch 1 games

95%

Name of the console contains the word "Switch"

94%

Launch title (game released on the same day as the system) with "Mario" in the name

92%

Backwards compatible with physical Switch 1 games, AND allows you to play a better looking or performing version of at least one Switch 1 game with the original Switch 1 cartridge within 6 months of the console launching

90%

Launch day system software includes a Mii maker

86%

Compatible with Switch 1 Joy-Cons (even if only Bluetooth)

80%

Crossplay with Switch 1 in any first-party game released within the first 6 months after launch

80%

Launch title (game released on the same day as the system) that also came out/is coming out for Switch 1

74%

Multiple launch SKUs

50%

Launch title (game released on the same day as the system) with "World" in the name

31%

Any launch SKU has a MSRP not ending in "9.99" in the US

31%

Launch title (game released on the same day as the system) with "Zelda" in the name

30%

Name of at least one launch SKU contains "XL"

24%

Over 180 days between reveal and release

24%

Will have some kind of "achievements" or "trophies" system (under any name)

20%

Launch day system software includes an internet browser (general-purpose browser that deliberately allows access to the wider Web, like the 3DS or Wii U browser)

19%

The name of the console is correctly leaked over two weeks before it is revealed

16%

Any launch SKU has an OLED screen

10%

No launch SKU has 12GB RAM

"Nintendo Switch 2" refers to Nintendo's next console that is rumored to be announced soon, regardless of whether it shares any ideas with the Nintendo Switch.

If you elaborate in the comments on what an answer means, please note to look at the comments in the answer text.

Market close date is provisional and may be extended or shortened.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Prop Bets

#Video Games

#Nintendo

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11 Comments

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Is it going to be a handheld system or will it just plug in to a TV?

@Eliza Existing leaks and such suggest it will be a hybrid like the Switch 1

@Robincvgr Which answer do I bet on?

opened a Ṁ500 YES at 10% order

M500 YES limit at 10% for anyone who wants it (NB, price was 8% for a few days until I bet it up)

@Robincvgr does this include the captive portal login applet, etc? (i.e. how would it resolve for the way the current switch system software is?)

@retr0id no. clarified in answer text - i'm thinking a general-purpose browser that deliberately allows access to the wider Web, like the 3DS or Wii U browser, not just something like the Switch's captive portal login applet

The og switch had 4GB RAM. But, devkits had 6GB. It's possible that the 12GB leaks we're seeing are for devkit hardware (makes sense for them to build the devkits first, I guess?), and that maybe retail units will have only 8GB. It's also possible that the leaks are bogus, although what I'm seeing looks very legit thus far.

for the purpose of this market, how are we defining "launch titles"?

@retr0id games released on the same day as the system

bought Ṁ15 YES

@Robincvgr Assuming a Bluetooth sync will satisfy this, as opposed to needing to actually clip in.

@OP 👍

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