Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by the year 2050, more than 50% of school children within the compulsory schooling age in Vienna are identified as Muslim. The determination will be based on official statistics or credible studies reporting the religious demographics of school-aged children in Vienna as of 2050. If such data is unavailable or inconclusive, the market will resolve to "N/A."

Background:

Recent data indicates a significant shift in the religious demographics of Vienna's school children. As of the 2024/2025 school year, approximately 35% of students in public elementary schools identified as Muslim, surpassing Catholics, who accounted for 21%. Additionally, 26% of students reported no religious affiliation, and 13% identified as Orthodox Christians. (krone.at)

Projections suggest that the Muslim population in Austria will continue to grow. A study estimated that the proportion of Muslims could reach between 14% and 26% of the total Austrian population by 2051. Notably, the same study projected that Muslims could represent up to 32% of those below 15 years of age by 2051. (econstor.eu)

These trends are influenced by factors such as immigration patterns, birth rates, and secularization. However, it's important to note that projections are subject to change based on future socio-political developments, migration policies, and cultural shifts.

• Update 2025-04-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Early Resolution Trigger:

  • The market will resolve as Yes if more than 50% of school children in compulsory schooling age in Vienna are identified as Muslim at any point before 2050.

  • This early trigger will determine the outcome without waiting for final 2050 data.