Will atmospheric CO₂ concentration exceed 450 ppm in 2030?
Plus
17
Ṁ16822030
34%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Close date updated to 2030-01-01 12:00 am
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Sort by:
I think this is equivalent to a more vague: will the superorganism break down before 2030? https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/mlo.html
Shows no signs of it. What might cause it to break down before 2030 and this to resolve no? In decreasing likelihood: Nuclear winter, bioterrorism, an AGI breakthrough leading to economic collapse, asteroid(s), a global overview effect (contact with extraterrestrials). For these reasons, I regretfully bet Yes.
@parhizj I think I might have hallucinated that 450 said 430, and referencing my comments in the below market, I put the ppm at 2030 to be a yearly global average of about 437 ppm, so I am changing my bet to No.
Related questions
Related questions
Will atmospheric CO₂ concentration exceed 500 ppm in 2050?
34% chance
Will atmospheric CO₂ concentration exceed 425 ppm in 2025?
39% chance
Will atmospheric CO₂ concentration exceed 600 ppm in 2100?
37% chance
Will atmospheric CO₂ concentrations reach 450 ppm (YES) or 400 ppm (NO) first?
95% chance
What will be the annual mean CO2 level in 2030?
438
Atmospheric PPM CO2 in 2050
477
Will anthropogenic CO2 emissions lead the world to a tipping point of no return by 2035?
57% chance
IF in 2030, atmospheric CO2 is 435-440 ppm, what will be the global temperature anomaly in 2030?
1.2
Atmospheric CO2 level in 2100
IF in 2030, atmospheric CO2 is 440-445 ppm, what will be the global temperature anomaly in 2030?
1.2