Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2028?
➕
Plus
22
Ṁ881
2028
83%
chance

This question resolves as YES if, before the January 1st 2028, a meme generated by artificial intelligence gains significant recognition and viral status, comparable to the widespread influence and shareability of popular memes created by humans. The meme must be widely acknowledged as being AI-generated and should achieve a level of cultural impact and dissemination across various media and social platforms, reflecting a substantial influence in the meme culture and digital community.

Questions with the same criteria:

/RemNi/will-a-significant-ai-generated-mem-5f798d3b2ace

/RemNi/will-a-significant-ai-generated-mem-1760ddcaf500

/RemNi/will-a-significant-ai-generated-mem-200a1b818595

/RemNi/will-a-significant-ai-generated-mem-95b65e96092d (this question)

/RemNi/will-a-significant-ai-generated-mem-7b1d4b5ec34

/RemNi/will-a-significant-ai-generated-mem-35fc023d619f

/RemNi/will-a-significant-ai-generated-mem

Other questions for 2028:

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346

/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028

/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-3ccf49dbe194

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-5553c437e8a4

/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-5dd99d5a1e48

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-f5a1947c172a

/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-7e534a91d188

/RemNi/will-the-dancing-plague-return-befo-0434665d77eb

/RemNi/will-1m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-a408a64f3756

The "idea" of the meme must have been discovered by an AI. If a human comes up with an idea for a meme, and then creates an image using a text-to-image model and puts it online, this does not count. Furthermore, the meme cannot simply be the fact that the content itself is AI generated. The semantics of the meme must refer to something else. There must be strong evidence that the AI chose the idea for the meme for this question to resolve as YES. If there is weak evidence, but no strong evidence, then this question resolves as N/A. If there is no evidence that this has occurred by the end date, then this question resolves as NO.


The meme must not solely be text-based, and must contain a non-text AI-generated component (e.g. image, video or audio). Text-based AI-generated memes arguably already exist:

https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/ai-generated-greentexts

Note that the meme must become significant before this question's end date. If an AI-generated meme is created in a given year, but only becomes popular in the following year, then it is the following year's question that resolves as YES.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules