Resolves as YES if at least one million humanoid robots have been manufactured before January 1st 2030.
Different number of robots:
Will 2K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2030?92%
Will 5K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2030?91%
Will 10K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2030?90%
Will 20K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2030?89%
Will 50K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2030?84%
Will 100K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2030?80%
Will 200K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2030?72%
Will 500K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2030?73%
Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2030?63% (this question)
Will 2M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2030?45%
Different years:
Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2028?27%
Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2029?44%
Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2030?63% (this question)
Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2031?70%
Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2032?70%
Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2033?79%
Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2034?77%
Other reference points for manufacture of 1M humanoid robots:
Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before a human walks on the Moon again?55%
Will we get AGI before 1M humanoid robots are manufactured?60%
Other questions for 2030:
Will we get AGI before 2030?58%
Will we get ASI before 2030?18%
Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2030?65%
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2030?14%
Will we discover alien life before 2030?8%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2030?20%
Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2030?89%
Will we get a cure for cancer before 2030?13%
Will the Dancing Plague return before 2030?16%
These humanoid robots must meet specific criteria to be counted towards this total. Each robot must be bipedal, walking upright on two legs in a manner that broadly resembles human walking. Additionally, each robot must be equipped with hands capable of manipulating objects. The hands should have fingers or similar appendages, allowing them to grip, hold, and interact with various items. Each robot must be capable of autonomous function without external power for a duration of at least 1 hour in order to qualify in the context of this question.
Each robot must be between 1.25 and 3 meters tall when standing up, and weigh between 25 and 500 kg. Furthermore, each robot must be able to lift a 5kg box off the floor and walk with it for 10 meters in order to qualify.
1,000
3.00
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What is this?
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Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00