Will US presidential election opinion polling for eventual runners correctly predict the result?
Basic
4
Ṁ82Nov 4
71%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market determines if opinion polling for presidential elections will get it right. For this purpose we will evaluate all polls added to the wiki article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_States_presidential_election
The page will be accessed the night before the election. And it will be compared to results later on.
We will only use polls for eventual runners. For instance, if it will be Biden vs Trump we won't use Biden vs deSantis polls.
Screenshot from 18th Jan:
Also for reference MF market:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will the largest manifold market covering the US presidential election correctly predict the outcome of the election?
50% chance
Which pollster will be the most accurate in predicting the 2024 election results (popular vote)?
Which social election "prediction" will correctly predict the outcome of the 2024 election
Will Manifold be more accurate than Polymarket in forecasting the 2024 election?
45% chance
In 2028, Will "Change in Average Inflation Rate" continue its 13-election win streak of predicting the US PV winner?
Will a model predict the swing state results in the 2028 US Presidential Election, based on non-swing states vote count?
52% chance
Highest volume prediction market for 2028 US prez election?
Are prediction markets more accurate than polls?
96% chance