Will Retro Biosciences succeed in increasing healthy human lifespan by ten years?
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Announcement here: https://retro.bio/announcement/
Will resolve yes if the mission is considered accomplished at the begining of 2040.
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A problem with this market is that if a different organization contributes to this as well, it's hard to figure out the causality of whether or not Retro should be given credit.
The website has a lot of fancy words and little science/data to show for it. Just saying “cell reprogramming” tells me nothing about the feasibility of their ideas.
predictedNO 1y
@drcat https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-12-19/longevity-startup-retro-biosciences-is-sam-altman-s-shot-at-life-extension This tells me More, i trust their methods better now but I’m not still sure they will succeed
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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