What will the tipping-point state be in the 2024 POTUS election?

Basic

Ṁ932

Nov 5

38%

Pennsylvania

17%

Wisconsin

15%

Michigan

14%

North Carolina

Georgia

Nevada

Arizona

"The tipping-point state is the first state that gives the winning candidate a majority of electoral votes, thereby securing the candidate's victory in the Electoral College, when all states are arranged in decreasing order of their vote margins for the ultimate winner."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tipping-point_state

Resolves as ambiguous if the election goes to the House because no candidate has a majority in the Electoral College. Margin is determined by percentage, not absolute vote count.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#Election margins

Get

1,000

and

3.00

6 Comments

25 Holders

111 Trades

Sort by:

Made a version of this with the new market type

There won't be one because Trump is going to have a Barry Goldwater performance and win 8-10 states max. So CaliThe GOP is insane to nominate someone who got CRUSHED as the incumbent.

This amounts to "which state will have the median (by margin) electoral vote", right?

@StevenK I don’t think so because states have unequal elector numbers

@Radicalia Right, I meant the median elector, not the median state.

Related questions

Related questions