This market was inspired by /bens/i-will-resolve-this-market-no-at-th
At market creation, I was on an 882 day streak.
As of August 20th it shows 909 days.
Resolves No if I reach a streak of 1000, otherwise Yes.
Fine print:
I will engage with comments and questions to a reasonable degree, as long as things remain friendly and in good faith.
I will try to add important clarifications to the description if necessary.
This is about my current streak.
I'm allowed to trade in this market.
Resolves Yes if my streak ends before reaching 1000 for any other reason than being persuaded (this should add some uncertainty and hopefully avoid drama).
Resolves No if Manifold gets rid of daily streaks, but I still keep trading regulary (and would keep my streak in the counterfactual world where streaks would still exist).
If things get annoying (harassement, threats, etc.) I might resolve N/A.
If you persuade me to stop my streak, but I continue trading (out of habit, because I forget or change my mind, etc.), you obviously haven't persuaded me enough and this still resolves No when the streak reaches 1000 (in other words: this won't resolve Yes before close).
1,000
3.00Is there nothing more valuable you could do with your time?
Nothing you would enjoy more?
Are you really going to come here day after day obsessing over minutiae on matters of no relevance to anyone as the wick of your life slowly burns to nothing?
Take up chess. Take up photography.
Marry and reproduce.
Anything but this.
@jessald Way ahead of you!
✅ Bought a used DSLR recently
✅ Married
✅ 2 kids
Took up Manifold instead of chess though, as I prefer to do something with my mind rather than my hands...
From personal experience when you try and keep yourself to betting every day can get boring and make the app feel stale sometimes. After multiple days of similar questions recommended to you it feels like nothing of value is being provided. Additionally trying to bet every day will eventually (probably) cause you to bet on markets you don’t know or care about. This isn’t fun, it makes your trading record worse (of right to wrong) and it makes manifolds accuracy as an app worse, which also feeds into the idea that play money prediction markets are significantly worse than real money. Overall stopping forcing yourself to trade every day can make manifold seem fun again and not like something you’re forced to do. I have experienced these things a lot, and 90% of the time I bet now it’s just some market I’m vaguely interested in and don’t do any research on that I bet like 50 mana and forget about. Admittedly this is all a bit hypocritical (coming from a person with 977 streak and not planning on stopping until I reach 1000) and I don’t actually believe you should stop, I just figured I’d throw in some arguments since there weren’t a lot of people trying to convince you to stop.
@Rocks Thank you! On an average day, I'd do a daily trade for the streak, but often later also some "real" trades in markets I'm interested in. You might have a point there though and maybe I should pay attention to how many days I just trade for the streak. Don't think this will keep me from keeping my streak, but might someday influence whether I'll reach 2k 😉
You know what, I actually think you shouldn't stop your streak, it shows how dedicated you are to the site and should be worn as a badge of pride, especially given how you've managed to build up such an impressive supply of streak forgiveness points (defacto net flawless month counter)
I haven't even bet so I'm not saying this from a place of corruption, I genuinely think it would be a cooler ending for you to actually reach the milestone
@TheAllMemeingEye Thank you!
That's also how I feel about this myself.
But still it's "just" a badge of honor, and I notice I'm confused by my own preferences. I wouldn't pay $5 to restore my streak, but also I think I wouldn't give it up for $200. I wouldn't pay a yearly fee of $20 for Manifold, but also wouldn't stop using Manifold if you offered $200. Feels pretty irrational.
@TheAllMemeingEye It's possible to find this information for any user: https://api.manifold.markets/v0/user/Primer
@Fion The criteria should be pretty unambiguous, no matter whether I trade myself or not. So yeah, that's possible. I'll add it to the description.
This would also be dangerous though. I come here maybe twice a day on average, partly on habit, but mainly because I love it. If I buy Yes and then accidentally keep trading, I'm fucked.
@Primer yeah, I don't think it's that dangerous unless you leave it too late. If you forget to abstain one day, you can try again then next day. Or you can delete the app from your phone for a day, or keep your phone in an envelope with "don't go on manifold" for a day. (If you use a computer instead of a phone, you could use a browser add on or post it notes or whatever.)
@Primer of course, the mana would need to be enough to make it worth it and maybe I underestimate how much you love it!
Oh also I just remembered streak forgiveness is a thing. Maybe harder than I thought
@Fion Good idea, uninstalling the app would probably work, I wouldn't accidentally login somewhere else.
@TheAllMemeingEye This is what I'm trying to find out. I didn't have a strong reason to keep the streak up until now, apart from "I wanted to". But "I wanted to" has carried me to 882 days.
I'd guess there were about 100-200 days where I would just open the App, get my daily streak on a random market and be done with it.
I once won hundreds of Ṁ and lost hundreds of $ because Bitcoin went down. I was happy that day.