Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official ceasefire or peace agreement between Israel and Iran is publicly announced and takes effect before July 1, 2025. The announcement must come from the governments of both nations or be confirmed by reputable international organizations such as the United Nations. If no such agreement is in place by that date, the market will resolve to "No."
Background
As of June 21, 2025, Israel and Iran are engaged in active military conflict. On June 13, 2025, Israel initiated Operation Rising Lion, targeting Iran's nuclear facilities and military infrastructure. In response, Iran launched missile and drone attacks against Israeli targets. The conflict has resulted in significant casualties and heightened regional tensions. (apnews.com)
Considerations
Given the current intensity of hostilities and the absence of ongoing diplomatic negotiations, the likelihood of a ceasefire or peace agreement being established before July 1, 2025, appears low. Traders should monitor official communications from both governments and international bodies for any developments indicating a move toward de-escalation.
Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For a ceasefire to resolve to YES, it must meet the following conditions:
It must be largely in effect, meaning minor violations are permissible.
The creator will wait one week after the ceasefire is announced to assess its effectiveness. (Edit - I meant a week after closing date)
The determination will be based on the media consensus at that one-week mark.
Update 2025-06-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For a ceasefire to resolve to YES, it must meet the following conditions:
It must be largely in effect, meaning minor violations are permissible.
The creator will wait one week after the closing date to assess its effectiveness.
The determination will be based on the media consensus at that one-week mark.
Update 2025-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a user's question, the creator clarified that the 'media consensus' criterion is used to judge if an officially announced ceasefire was largely intact.
This evaluation will take place one week after the market's closing date.
The purpose is to determine if the ceasefire has held, allowing for minor violations.
1,000
3.00>This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official ceasefire or peace agreement between Israel and Iran is publicly announced and takes effect before July 1, 2025
>The determination will be based on the media consensus at that one-week mark.
I'm not sure I understand, one statement says that it has to be an official agreement announced other says media consensus.
@FecalAbhuman I think it's media consensus on whether the ceasefire is meaningly "official" in the wake of the ceasefire announcement on Truth Social
@FecalAbhuman the media consensus part was added because, I left a clause that minor violations are permissible, but the media consensus 1 week after market closing date should be that the ceasefire was largely intact
@JannesH Market Creator clearly stated
if its largely taken effect even if theres a few ceasefire violations. The media consensus after 1 week needs to be that the ceasefire has taken effect. I will resolve this after 1 week
How has this not stabilised yet 48 hours into the ceasefire? Anyone watching the news on this?
@PoliticalEconomyPK Honestly, I have no idea what's going on here. The ceasefire seems to be holding just fine and I see no indication that either side wants it to end.
@PoliticalEconomyPK I'm guessing the starting liquidity of the market (1k) makes it not so elastic to "large" trades (even 300M shifts the probability a lot).
@PoliticalEconomyPK I'm shocked my limit order at 55% was filled, maybe rage bait really does work. I need to use it more often.
If you think Trump is bad for democracy and always lies, bet NO and fill my limit orders!
@BlackCrusade It was but it just needs to last 7 days in July starting from the last second of June. Also, creator stated clearly
if its largely taken effect even if there's a few ceasefire violations.
@BlackCrusade also it is—sadly—standard in the middle east for whomever Israel is fighting to fire a few more rockets moments after any given ceasefire starts. These incidents rarely, if ever, actually break the ceasefire. There is usually a little retaliation back and forth before the ceasefire comes into effect. The one notable exception is Lebanon; After this last round of fighting, a ceasefire was signed. Hezbollah broke the ceasefire immediately, as Is standard protocol, and Israel responded with a lot of force., as though the ceasefire had been broken. Even in this case, however, functionally a ceasefire did start soon after.
@DanielFox9fff Israel is still bombing lebanon frequently during this ceasefire. For Israel, a ceasefire means they can keep bombing you but you cant respond
Ceasefires are complicated. Do not compare on and off strikes against military targets a while after a ceasefire starts to the purposeful firing of rockets at civilian targets moments after the start time of a ceasefire.
One is an act of war in debatable violation of a ceasefire (re. bombing a missile silo placed illegally under the rules of said ceasefire), the other is a blatant violation of the ceasefire for no purpose but to show you can (re. bombing civilians minutes after the start of a ceasefire)
In a video statement summing up Operation Rising Lion against Iran, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says, “We achieved a historic victory.”
US President Donald Trump “enlisted in an unprecedented fashion,” Netanyahu says, and thanks him for “his part in defending Israel, and removing the Iranian nuclear threat.”
Netanyahu says the historic development — US striking Iran in support of Israel — is “the fruit of a diplomatic campaign he led with [Strategic Affairs] Minister Ron Dermer.”
“Israel has never had a friend like President Trump in the White House, and I thank him greatly for our joint work,” says Netanyahu, hours after a livid Trump blasted Israel for violating the ceasefire with Iran.
US forces “destroyed” the underground Fordo enrichment site, he says, adding that “we sent Iran’s nuclear program down the drain.”
“If someone in Iran tries to restore that program, we will act with the same determination, the same power, to cut off any such attempt,” says Netanyahu.
“I repeat – Iran will not have a nuclear weapon.”
Netanyahu boasts that Israel also destroyed Iran’s ballistic missile production program and most of its launchers.
Israel also “landed crushing blows on the evil regime” itself. He lauds the attack on Iran early this morning, before the ceasefire took effect, the same massive strike Trump raged against in front of the cameras this morning. He says Israel landed “the most severe blow in [the regime’s] history.”
Turning to Gaza, Netanyahu says, “We must defeat Hamas and bring back the hostages.”
Looking to the future, Netanyahu says that — with Iran’s axis in tatters — Israel will open an “axis of prosperity and peace of the nations of the region” and beyond.
This is a pure "Own the libs" play.
Israel's airport is opening, Iran is holding a victory parade, all restrictions in israel have been removed. Polymarket with a stricter 14 days without any strikes whatsoever is at 75%. Trump is being very forceful in making israel & iran keep to it. The war is over, but some people can't handle that Trump pulled it off - I will make manna off those people.