Will any candidate get a majority of the popular vote in 2024?
➕
Plus
110
Ṁ27k
Dec 1
2%
chance

Resolves YES if one candidate gets more than 50% of the vote in the U.S. presidential election. It doesn't have to be the same candidate who wins. It's possible for this not to happen if third parties or independents get enough of the vote that neither major party makes it to 50%.

#🇺🇸 US Politics
#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election
#Election margins
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

California still only at 72% reporting. Assuming those votes are 38% Trump like the rest of the state, he ends up at 50.01%. Outstanding votes in WA/OR should push that below 50.

bought Ṁ100 NO

@SentientTree Yeah, I think the linear projection based on votes already counted is slightly below 50. But uncounted votes are mail-in and so should make it even slightly lower than that.

bought Ṁ50 NO

https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1855608085571580169

@PlasmaBallin Going to resolve this?

@StCredZero I don't think this can resolve yet. Trump may drop below 50% once California finishes counting.

This is for the presidential race, right?

@Joshua Yes, not sure how I managed to write the title and description without mentioning what race it was for.

Related questions

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules