When will the first Mars landing occur?
When will the first Mars landing occur?
Plus
26
Ṁ22322060
5%
20s
42%
30s
28%
40s
11%
50s
15%
Later
In what decade will humans first land on Mars?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
When will the first humans land on Mars?
2040
When will a human first set foot on Mars?
When will the first humans set foot on Mars?
When will a (living) human first set foot on Mars?
2039
When will a human land on the Mars?
Who will be the first human to set foot on Mars?
Will the first human landing on Mars take place before the next human landing on the Moon?
3% chance
Who will be the first person on Mars?
When will the first Mars samples be returned to Earth?
2033
In which year will there be the first human mission to Mars?