When GPT-5 comes out, will more Manifold users say it exceeded or fell below expectations?

Plus

Ṁ875

resolved Sep 8

ALL

100%67%

Fell below

33%

Exceeded

1 month after GPT-5 comes out, I will create a poll that will run for a month with three options:

GPT-5 exceeded the general expectations for it.
GPT-5 exactly met the general expectations for it.
GPT-5 fell below the general expectations for it

This market will resolve "Exceeded" if more people vote that GPT-5 exceeded the general expectations around it then vote that it fell below general expectations. It will resolve "fell below" if the opposite happens. Yes, this effectively means the votes of the people who say it exactly met general expectations won't do anything. The price of neutrality I guess.

Respondents will be asked about general expectations around GPT-5, not whether it exceeded or fell below their own expectations. Exactly how they interpret general expectations I will leave up to them.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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I have decided this poll is sufficient basis to resolve upon https://manifold.markets/GabeGarboden/did-gpt5-exceed-expectations

My guess is that the goal with GPT-5 is near o1 performance without the lengthy thinking stage. Without scaling test time compute I don't see any way it ends up smarter than current SOTA.

bought Ṁ50 YES

If people now have low expectations as this polls clearly shows, then it will probably exceed expectations.

@Philip3773733 yes, this market should have been at exactly 50%, and well-calibrated manifolders should have been 50/50 split in the poll - but the actual poll was far from that!

@retr0id ah I should've paid more attention to this part... "Respondents will be asked about general expectations around GPT-5, not whether it exceeded or fell below their own expectations."

This question is screwing with my head lol

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