When will my question about a majority of 41 secret bits with SHA256s first go <10% or >90% for a solid hour?
13
Ṁ5345
Sep 5
0.6%
July 1st
0.7%
July 2nd
3%
July 3rd
17%
July 4th
7%
July 5th
9%
July 6th
8%
July 7th
10%
July 8th
3%
July 9th
2%
July 10th
1.8%
July 11th
38%
July 12th or later

When will this question:

https://manifold.markets/PeterSchmidtNielsen/are-the-majority-of-the-final-bits

... first go <10% or >90%, and then stay there for a solid hour? Even a momentary blip back into the range 10% ≤ x ≤ 90% breaks the "solid hour".

In some sense, this is a proxy for the problem being solved, but with a lot of other shenanigans possible, of course.

(All days are in PDT. I will count based on the start time, so if it goes to 95% at 23:30 PDT on July 4th, and stays there for an hour, that counts as July 4th, not July 5th.)

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this market may be set to resolve too soon

@Na3wt54zergd Ack, you're correct, thanks, I fixed it.

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