Although personally I don't believe it's likely, I am making this market and betting YES to motivate myself.
I will never buy NO, I will never sell my YES shares, and I'm opening a limit order for YES at 50%, that I'll refill as I have liquidity, up to 10k mana.
The resolution criteria is very straightforward - if I score in the top 5 in the leaderboard in any of these competitions, the market resolves as YES.
If I win any money in a Kaggle competition, the market resolves as YES (this is usually top 3-5 spots). My kaggle username is istinetz, same as here.
If I don't do any of these things, or if I consider it astronomically unlikely, I will resolve the market as NO early.
Context about myself:
Pros:
I like machine learning
I am a data engineer
I really want this
Cons:
I don't have an ML PhD. I don't have any degree
I have never written a paper
I have never placed well in a Kaggle competition
I have a full-time job that doesn't have anything to do with reinforcement learning
I have a tendency to procrastinate on side projects
I don't have a brilliant plan to game the rules, or a trick up my sleeve
I previously made a similar market that resolved NO
1,000
3.00@PeterBuyukliev do you know approximately how many of these competitions there will still be until april 26? Basically asking if there's gonna be hundreds of competitions left, or if there's only a handful. also, any changes from last month?
@AdityaGupta4830 no progress so far :) I started tinkering with a few competitions over christmas break, but nothing serious.