Will Zelenskyy outlast Putin as president?
Will Zelenskyy outlast Putin as president?
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Market resolves yes if Zelenskyy is still the president of Ukraine while Putin is not president of Russia anymore, and no if it's the other way around.
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Ukrainan law currently prohibits holding elections during wartime. It also prohibits negotiations with Putin. Thus, it seems that, under current law, Zelenskyy cannot be replaced while Putin is in power.
predictedNO 2y
Predict zelensky to step down after the war, while Putin hangs on for six months until couped.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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