If autonomous vehicles make headway, they could make driving less expensive.
Right now, it typically costs me around $50 for a private ride from downtown Berkeley to SFO, or ~$40 for a shared ride. In the future, inflation will make the dollar less valuable, but also, autonomous cars might make driving cheaper. On this other side, if they become too popular, there could be bottlenecks of road capacity or similar.
This resolves TRUE if:
In January 2027, I can take an autonomous drive from the downtown Berkeley area to SFO, using an application I can easily install. My place is close to the downtown BART station - but if leaving from that station is cheaper, I'll use that one.
If I can find some ride in the first ~2 weeks of January that's less than $30. I'll check at least 5 times. Happy to check when users here suggest. I won't check it between 12pm and 8am, both because I might be asleep, and because this range is less relevant.
The $30 is in 2027 dollars, not in 2023 dollars. So, inflation will influence the result.
I'll allow there to be up to 2 other people sharing the ride with me, but no one more. So if there's an "autonomous bus", that wouldn't count.
I won't include tip in this.
1,000
3.00Betting NO, here's my reasoning:
You need a) AND one of b) or c) to be true.
a) "Will you be able to book an autonomous ride from Berkeley to SFO in Jan 2027?"
As of the time of this comment, that's 2y away. I'd put that at 40% at most, maybe lower.
I think it's likely that Waymo would expand towards SFO, and the South Bay before they expand across the bridge to East Bay / Berkeley.
(See related market: https://manifold.markets/venki/will-waymo-be-available-in-berkeley?play=true)
b) "Will Waymo offer private rides at a ~40-50% discount relative to Lyft/Uber by 2027?"
Seems unlikely to me (<30%) - I do believe they'll still be losing money, and more constrained on supply than demand at that time.
c) "Will Waymo offer a shared ride offering by then AND offer it at a ~20-30% discount relative to Lyft/Uber by 2027?"
Also seems unlikely to me (<20%).
I think the top case for YES is some substantial growth in supply + much more aggressive discounts during low-demand times, eg: "all our Waymos are free right now so we're gonna give you a 50% discount"